Elections – Continued
Some elections have already taken place, and here are my own predictions for some of these:
The computations have been perhaps a little less difficult that usual, precisely because these are individual contested seats, which means a de facto FPTP. And some of these results have been quite counter-intuitive; nonetheless, these figures are estimates, which means that some leaders are actually in a virtual tie with their nearest competitors
In all these seats PJD has carried 26% of the votes last year, and 20% when Hay Hassani and Marrakech-Menara are excluded. It has run very strong in Inzegane Ait Melloul for instance, yet it does not show to be a leading contender in this by-election. This is because of various factors:
1/ The probability for PJD candidates to get more than 30,000 votes in a particular district is 10.6%, whereas RNI’s chance is a little over 10% – relatively small differences, but then again there is no need for it, given the fact that it is only one seat, and the basic rule of the game is to get just one vote ahead. So even if there is a .3% advantage for RNI, PJD is very likely to get a third seat at Inzegane Ait-Melloul. Which is very bad news for USFP, even more so considering its low winning probability.
2/ Smaller parties (MDS and PA) are very likely to lose it all, and perhaps even lose their deposit in the process.
3/ PPS stands a relatively good chance at keeping its seat, although a big push from larger parties could tip the balance the other way.
Finally, the trend for these districts, illustrated by the average probabilities for each party points to PJD as the chief beneficiary of these by-elections, hence securing a similar caucus in 2016.
News: PJD twitter feed/facebook page has just called Inzegane Ait Melloul for its candidate. I am not sure RNI is running a candidate down there, but if they decide not to, the likelihood increases substantially from 16.6% to 20.29%.
بلغت النتائج الشبه النهائية بدائرة انزكان أيت ملول ما يلي:العدالة و التنمية: 15009 صوتاالاستقلال: 6077 صوتا… fb.me/2BGmNCXCT
— PJD Officiel (@PJDofficiel) December 20, 2012